When we pick up an unbalanced or semi-balanced hand, just after we notice our HCP and notice whether it’s a weak or medium or strong hand in relation to its HCP, we notice its Losing Trick Count. A simple definition of Losing Trick Count is: the number of tricks you would lose, with your long suit as trumps, in the first three rounds of the four suits, if partner has only small cards. As an example, these two holdings each have two losers: A32 and QJ10. Also see Cover Cards.
In our partnership, we find that we make more use of Losing Trick Count and Cover Cards than “points”, particularly in competitive auctions.
Illustrative Example
Here is a simple example for Losing Trick Count and Cover Cards (spades are trumps):
Declarer (the long trump hand) has a Losing Trick Count of seven (one in spades, two in hearts, one in diamonds, three in clubs). Dummy (the supporting hand) has three Cover Cards (the King of hearts, the Ace of clubs, and a ruff in hearts), so game in spades would have poor chances (seven losers, minus three cover cards = four losers = nine tricks not ten). The long trump hand is a good example of a hand that would have reasonable prospects for game opposite a limit raise (4+ spades, 10-12 support points), possibility for game opposite a mixed raise (4+ spades, 7-9 support points), and poor prospects for game opposite a single raise.
Differences of Opinion Regarding How to Count Losers
For the moment, we will note that experts differ on whether to adjust the raw Losing Trick Count, in some situations. Here’s an example: compare these three-card suits: QJ10, QJ2, Q102, Q92 and Q32. Everyone counts QJ10 as two losers, but not everyone agrees on how to count losers for the other holdings. Our view is that the value of considering Losing Trick Count and Cover Cards greatly outweighs the legitimate concerns about, for example, whether these particular holdings should count as 2.0 or 2.25 or 2.5 or 2.75 losers.
Guidelines for Using the Losing Trick Count at the Table
In order to give you a sense of the usefulness of this approach, following are some situations in which we use Losing Trick Count and Cover Cards in the bidding.
When partner opens a 15-17 one notrump, we think about inviting game when our Losing Trick Count is eight, and we think about insisting on game when our Losing Trick Count is seven.
We tend to have a Losing Trick Count between seven and nine when we open a weak two bid. With a Losing Trick Count below seven, we tend to open one or three of our suit instead; with a Losing Trick Count above nine, we tend to pass instead.
When partner makes a simple overcall (that is, an overcall without jumping) at the two level, we expect that partner will have a Losing Trick Count of seven or six. At the three level, we expect that partner will have a Losing Trick Count of six or five. We say “expect” because we realize that, sometimes, partner will find it necessary to overcall with less playing strength, usually because partner has too many HCP to feel comfortable passing.
Our guideline for opening one of a major and making a jump rebid of three of our suit is a Losing Trick Count of five.
When partner opens a strong two clubs, we find that when we have three Cover Cards, usually there is a slam.
When partner gives a single raise of our one heart or one spade opening bid, if partner promises 8-10 points (including distribution) we expect 1.5 to 2.0 Cover Cards, so we tend to invite game when we have a Losing Trick Count of five (two of opener’s five losers are covered by responder’s two Cover Cards, thus opener should take ten tricks). If partner promises 5-7 points (including distribution), we expect 1.0 to 1.5 Cover Cards, so we tend to invite game when we have a Losing Trick Count of 4.5.
When partner gives a limit raise of our one heart or one spade opening bid, when we have an unbalanced hand we tend to accept partner’s invitation when our Losing Trick Count is six or better.