The Full Deal
Declarer makes eleven tricks if you play low, ten if you cover. Minus 660 is 17%, minus 630 is 62%. Most NS pairs played in four hearts, usually making ten or eleven tricks (sometimes twelve tricks).
Bonus from Val: Some less experienced players seem to believe that if they play low smoothly, declarer will go up Ace, trying to drop a singleton King from partner’s hand. But a singleton King, off-side, is a rare occurrence. However, it is not a rare occurrence for Easts to play small from three to the King (or even from King doubleton). So while a beginner might play the Ace, a better player would not. If (as declarer) you would be tempted to play the Ace, turn the page to consider the likelihood that West was dealt the singleton King. Deal D021.