Answer
You are 4th seat, favorable.
What’s your call?. Your Losing Trick Count is seven, and partner’s single raise might easily provide two cover cards, so you were expecting to make two spades more often than not. If that’s right, then if East is going to make four hearts, you probably have a 300 point sacrifice in four spades doubled. You probably won’t take more than two tricks on defense, and it would be surprising if partner took two tricks on defense, so it seems likely that four hearts will make. Another indication is that East bounced directly into game, vulnerable; typically this indicates confidence that four hearts is going to make or come very close. Of course, there are no guarantees; one or both opponents may have stretched.
One of Marty Bergen’s “Principles of a Lifetime” is to bid four spades over four hearts when there is any shred of an excuse. We have found that to be a successful guideline, so we like a four spade call here, although it’s certainly not wrong to pass..
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