Question
This deal occurred in a large online Open Pairs game in July 2022. You (3rd seat, none vulnerable) are declaring:
One notrump was 15-17, two clubs was Stayman, and two spades showed four spades and invitational values. Three notrump is a relatively poor contract. Most players would invite with the North hand (nine relatively nice HCP despite the poor spot cards), but we like to use the “Rule of 16” here, and North’s “Rule of 16” score is 9 HCP + 3 cards above an eight = 12 which is not enough to consider an invitation; 15 would indicate a sound invitation; 14 would indicate an optional invitation). And perhaps you shouldn’t have accepted the invitation (you have 16 HCP but your Kaplan-Rubens value is only 15.15). But you’re in three notrump and you need to take your best chance to make the contract.
The opening lead is the ten of clubs (deuce, four, King). With only seven fast certain winners you have to hope to build two extra winners in spades. You lead the Queen (King, Ace). Your two chances for a ninth trick are (1) ten of spades with East and (2) original K10 doubleton of spades with West.
Which is the better chance?
There’s no correct formula for declaring notrump contracts, but a good start is to count your fast certain winners; then consider ways to develop additional winners. We discuss this in more detail in Chapter 3 of Real World Bridge 3: Declarer Play.