The Full Deal
Summing up, there are consistent messages from all of those approaches: (1) It’s very unlikely that we can make a game; and (2) It wouldn’t be surprising to go down in two notrump or in three spades. So we think you shouldn’t even invite game.
At the table, we sat NS and stopped in two spades. Even eight tricks aren’t assured; with the 5-0 trump split, if EW attack diamonds, declarer might well lose one trick in each minor suit plus four trump tricks. However, our opponents did not find that defense, and South made eight tricks for a pleasant 83% score. Most NS pairs were too high; the other frequent NS scores were minus 50 (56%) and minus 100 (28%).
Bonus from Val: Even with a more forgiving layout, I wouldn’t want to be in any game contract on the North-South cards (23 combined HCP). Deal V025. To explore alternative lines of play and defense, use this link: https://tinyurl.com/55vvpd63
There’s a relatively well-known slogan: “An opening bid opposite an opening bid tends to produce a game”. In Real World Bridge 1: Tips for Getting Better at Bridge and also in Real World Bridge 2: Winning Strategies we discuss why following that slogan often loses matchpoints in The Real World.